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Will the end of FY13 signal a finale for segment of the Civ/DoD industrial base?

Sunday, July 21, 2013   (2 Comments)
Posted by: Guy Timberlake (theasbc.org/visionary)
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This will likely be one of the more succinct posts I publish in the Visionary's Blog and possibly one of the most important topics. Of course, it's about money, specifically how much our Uncle Sam has not obligated to contracts this fiscal year-to-date. It's also about the future and how it will change for the Government, Industry and individuals on both sides.

Without beating around the bush, here's the state of published government contract spending as recorded by the Government:

$244,028,058,891.74

This represents a lot of activity on the part of federal civilian and defense agencies this fiscal year, even with the much publicized challenges they've faced. Or is it?

As of this post there are just over seventy days left in the 2013 fiscal year. If we look at contract spending for 2012, the last completed fiscal year, there is a long way to go.

How far? Here's what agencies recorded having obligated in FY2012:

$516,978,338,369.85

How will the final impact of reduced budgets and sequestration be measured in contracting dollars? One hundred billion or two hundred billion fewer contracting dollars spent in FY13?

Even if we take into consideration that YTD DoD spending won't be public until 90 day after the fact, there's potentially still a good chunk of money to spend by September 30, 2013.

We hope.

How will this end?

More important to me, how much of our small business industrial base will be left standing when all is said and done?

Peace.

The Chief Visionary
www.theasbc.org/visionary

"The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person doing it."

Comments...

Steve, more than happy to do it! Of the agencies required to report to FPDS-NG, DoD publishes its information ninetey days in arrears due to operational security. Other agencies range from daily sweeps to being a week behind, on average. As far as the difference in spending fromthis year to last, "on paper" we are only about $30 billion behind. The wild card is defense spending which accounted for a little more than $80 billion during Q4 FY12 and an additional $4B that was attributed to FY12 after the 9/30/2012. With all of the factors compiled, it will be interesting to see how this year end shapes up.
Steven Mackie, SSI says...
Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Interesting information Guy. Thanks for keeping us in the loop on the big picture. Two questions for you - how much is the FPDS data lagging? and how does this compare to last FY at this date?

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